Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Forrester Research: The Emerging Green Technology Consumer

By NEWS RELEASE [9 Reads]


green hard drive Twelve percent of US adults — some 25 million Americans — are willing to pay extra for consumer electronics that use less energy or come from a company that is environmentally friendly according to a new survey by Forrester Research, Inc. These "bright greens" are the vanguard of an emerging consumer market segment that will be an attractive target for technology companies.

The Forrester report is based on a survey of 5,000 US adults.

"The green leadership position is open: Which manufacturer will create the iconic 'Prius' product in consumer electronics?" said Forrester Research Senior Vice President Christopher Mines.

The Forrester survey identified three distinct segments of US technology consumers:
  • Bright greens are 12 percent of US adults. These consumers are concerned about the environment and strongly agree that they would pay more for consumer electronics products that save energy or come from a company that is environmentally responsible.
  • Green consumers are another 41 percent of US adults. These 90 million consumers share concerns about environmental issues, but do not strongly agree that they would pay more for environmentally friendly products.
  • Non-greens are the remaining 47 percent of US adults. The rest of the population, 96 million Americans, do not (yet) share the greens' concerns about the environment or global warming.


Among the major PC brands, Apple's customer base is the greenest, with 17 percent of its customers in the bright green consumer category. HP's Compaq brand ranks second, with 13 percent of its customers in the bright green category.

Many of the major consumer electronic manufacturers, including Apple, Dell, HP, Sony, and Toshiba, have taken early steps to green their operations and products. But moving forward, marketers and designers of consumer technology products and services will change product marketing and product design to embrace green principles like energy efficiency, lower-impact manufacturing, longer product life cycles, and recycleability.

"All the green efforts of consumer technology manufacturers so far have been one-size-fits-all: They are not targeted at a particular segment of consumers, but apply across the board to a company's products, manufacturing, and supply chain," said Mines. "We fully expect green technology consumers to further emerge as a target segment for style-conscious electronics manufacturers as the industry moves beyond beige-box design."

The report, "In Search Of Green Technology Consumers," is currently available to Forrester RoleView™ clients and can also be purchased directly at www.forrester.com.

About Forrester Research
Forrester Research, Inc. (Nasdaq: FORR) is an independent technology and market research company that provides pragmatic and forward-thinking advice to global leaders in business and technology. For more than 24 years, Forrester has been making leaders successful every day through its proprietary research, consulting, events, and peer-to-peer executive programs. For more information, visit www.forrester.com.


Source : http://www.ehomeupgrade.com/entry/4481/forrester_research_the

Bangladeshis ignorant of looming danger: Rapid melting of Himalayan glaciers may cause prolonged floods

Climate change during the past 17 years caused Himalayan glaciers to melt at an unprecedented rate, restricting water supply and sanitation access for millions of people in Asia, said delegates at the Asia-Pacific Water Forum Summit in Japan.

Summit delegates from more than 30 Asian countries called on world leaders now meeting in Bali to consider the relationship between climate change and water shortages as they craft a successor to the Kyoto Protocol on global warming.

``All the speakers clearly identified climate change as a critical challenge to effective and sustainable water management,'' said former Japan Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori, who served as chairman of the summit in Beppu, on Japan's southern island of Kyushu.

At least 700 million people among Asia-Pacific's 3.7 billion population don't have access to safe and affordable water, and more than 1.9 billion don't have adequate sanitation, according to the United Nations and other agencies.

Country representatives hope to reduce those figures by half by 2015, and then to zero by 2025, according to a closing statement released by summit organisers today. About 94 percent of Himalayan glaciers shrank from 1990 to the present, compared with about 50 percent from 1950 to 1970, according to the Nepal-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development. Rapid melting causes floods in the short term and water shortages in the long term.

Melting glaciers threaten water supplies for at least 1.4 billion people living near rivers that flow down from the Himalaya, including the Indus and Ganges, according to the centre's Director General Andreas Schild. A total of 45 per cent of the Indus water flow is glacier water, he said.

Bhutan's Prime Minister Kinzang Dorji said melting glaciers are increasing the risk that lakes may burst their barriers, causing flash floods. When that water is gone, so too will be Bhutan's hydroelectric industry, which supplies 40 per cent of the nation's power, he said.

Japanese Prime Minister and Crown Prince Naruhito attended the opening day of the Beppu conference yesterday.

``More than half of the problems related with water in the world are here in the Asia-Pacific region,'' Fukuda said.

The UN summit on climate change opened yesterday on Indonesia's island of Bali. For the next two weeks, officials there will try to build a framework for a treaty to replace the carbon emission-limiting Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012.

Ken Noguchi, a Japanese mountaineer and activist known for expeditions to clear garbage from the Himalaya, said too little progress was being made at conferences. Delegates have no idea of the urgency of climate change problems now facing people in developing nations, Noguchi said.

``I have participated in these conferences many times and there is a huge gap in the sense of crisis between delegates and people in Nepal or Bangladesh,'' he said. ``There, people have already died in flash floods caused by glacial melting.''

Netherlands Crown Prince Willem-Alexander, who serves on the UN Advisory Board on Water and Sanitation, said the meetings were needed to keep issues on the political agenda.

``These conferences are often criticized, but they are necessary to raise awareness among people who are not usually involved in water management,'' he said.

Source : http://nation.ittefaq.com/issues/2007/12/05/news0812.htm

Bali climate talks advance despite squabbling

Reuters, Bali

A 190-nation climate meeting in Bali took small steps towards a new global deal to fight global warming by 2009 on Tuesday amid disputes about how far China and India should curb rising greenhouse gas emissions.

Yvo de Boer, the U.N.'s top climate official, praised the December 3-14 meeting of 10,000 participants for progress towards a goal of launching formal talks on a long-term climate pact to succeed the U.N.'s Kyoto Protocol.

"But in this process, as in so many, the devil's in the detail," he cautioned in an interview with Reuters at a beach-side conference centre on the Indonesian island.

Governments set up a "special group" to examine options for the planned negotiations meant to bind the United States and developing nations led by China and India more firmly into fighting climate change beyond Kyoto.

The meeting also agreed to study ways to do more to transfer clean technologies, such as solar panels or wind turbines, to developing nations. Such a move is key to greater involvement by developing nations in tackling their climate-warming emissions.

The Kyoto Protocol now binds 36 rich nations to curb emissions of greenhouse gases, mainly from burning fossil fuels, by an average of 5 per cent below 1990 levels by 2008-12 in a step to curb droughts, floods, heatwaves and rising seas.

But there was skirmishing about how to share out the burden beyond Kyoto and environmentalists accused Kyoto nations Japan and Canada of expecting China and India to do too much.

Canada said in a submission to the talks that "to be effective, a new international framework must include emission reduction obligations for all the largest emitting economies." It did not mention deeper cuts for rich nations beyond 2012.

And Japan on Monday called on all parties to effectively participate and contribute substantially. A Japanese official said it was "essential" that China and India were involved.

"Canada and Japan are saying nothing about legally binding emission reductions for themselves after 2012," said Steven Guilbeault of environmental group Equiterre. "They are trying to shift the burden to China and India."

Green groups gave Japan a mock award as "Fossil of the Day" -- made daily to the nation accused of holding up the talks.

De Boer played down the environmentalists' objections, saying that all nations were merely laying out ideas. "A marriage contract is not something to discuss on a first date," he said. "No proposals have formally been made."

China and India say that rich nations must take on far deeper cuts in emissions and that they cannot take on caps yet because they need to burn more fossil fuels to end poverty.

The Bali talks are seeking a mandate to widen Kyoto to all nations beyond 2012. Of the world's top-five emitters, only Russia and Japan are part of Kyoto. The United States is outside the pact, while China and India are exempt from curbs.

And de Boer also said the talks should not focus solely on the plan to launch new negotiations. "There's a bit of a risk that countries that are very keen to see negotiations being launched go over the top and focus only on that," he said.

Developing nations were worried that more immediate issues -- such aid to help them cope with droughts, floods and rising seas -- could "be forgotten in all the excitement about the future," he said.

Outside the Bali conference centre on Tuesday, a group of environmentalists gave a mock swimming lesson to delegates, saying that rising seas could swamp low-lying tropical islands such as Bali unless they acted.

Source : http://nation.ittefaq.com/issues/2007/12/05/news0812.htm

The debate warms up

New Delhi December 05, 2007

The Human Development Report (2007-08), released last week, has done what should have been attempted earlier: put the need to combat climate change at the centre of global economic endeavour. Among those that were holding out, first the European Union, then China and most recently the new leadership of Australia have fallen in line with the need to control and reduce carbon emissions to fight global warming. Now only the US stands out as the major polluter in the world which is still refusing to take on an international obligation to cut its carbon emissions. The foreword to the report states that limiting climate change “is a worthwhile insurance strategy for the world as a whole, including the richest countries”. And it acknowledges that the most difficult policy challenges to be faced in adopting measures to combat climate change will be “distributional”, that is determining how the burden will be shared between rich and poor countries, and also between those who created the problem and the rest. Stating that the current multilateral arrangements to combat climate change are inadequate, the report calls for a binding international commitment to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Since the developing countries have to be a part of such an agreement, it must incorporate “provisions for finance and technology from rich nations that bear historical responsibility for climate change.”
While such assertions in the HDR are welcome, the Planning Commission’s deputy chairman, Montek Singh Ahluwalia, has rightly objected to the report’s attempt to stipulate emission reduction milestones on the basis of over-all country emissions, and not on the basis of per capita emission. In that sense, the HDR has walked straight into the politics of climate change by adopting the viewpoint of the rich countries, and ignoring the viewpoint of countries like India. Any cap on the basis of total country emissions restricts a highly populous country like India’s ability to grow, and will militate against reducing poverty. Indeed, the report gives the false impression of being fair by saying that the developed countries must reduce their emissions by 2050 by 80 per cent of what they committed under the Kyoto agreement, and developing countries must reduce theirs by 20 per cent. But so far ahead are the rich countries in their overall emissions that even after these reductions they will remain way ahead of countries like India. By 2050, India’s population is likely to be five times that of the US but, according to the HDR formula, India will have to restrict emissions to less than a third of that allowed to the US. The hypocrisy and double standards are transparent.
The underlying message is that hard bargaining lies ahead as the world seeks to hammer out a new agreement on emission reduction to replace the Kyoto protocol, which expires by 2012. Manmohan Singh did well to score some points at his last meeting with the heads of the G8 countries by saying that India is taking corrective action and that it will not cross the level of emissions in the rich countries. This has also struck a responsive chord in the head of the G8, Germany’s Angela Merkel. The question at the forthcoming Bali meeting will be whether this foundation can be built upon. In that context, the HDR does not help arrive at a solution.

Source : http://www.business-standard.com/opinionanalysis/storypage.php?leftnm=lmnu5&subLeft=1&autono=306501&tab=r

Survey: Apple users more likely to be green-minded

December 04, 2007

Apple users are proportionally more eco-friendly than users of other vendors' PCs. Moreover, they're more willing to plunk down extra cash for "green" products.

That nugget of information is one many findings in a report just released by Forrester Research titled "In Search Of Green Technology Consumers: Why Tech Marketers Should Target This Emerging Segment." Forrester surveyed computer users to determine the extent of their green leanings and what drove their environmentally conscientious practices (or lack thereof).

The report finds that, all told, 12 percent of U.S. adults are "bright green," which Forrester defines as those who are "concerned about the environment and global warming, and strongly agree that they would pay extra for consumer electronics that used less energy or came from a company that was environ-mentally friendly." Moreover, another 41 percent of U.S. adults are "green consumers": those who "share concerns about environ-mental issues and global warming, but do not strongly agree that they would pay more for environmentally-friendly electronics."

The remaining 47 percent of the population "do not (yet) share the greens’ concerns about the environment or global warming."

Forrester found that 14 percent of Apple users are bright green. From there, the list breaks down like this: 13 percent of Compaq consumers are bright green; then 12 percent of Gateway users; 11 percent of eMachines buyers; 10 percent of Dell fans; 9 percent of Toshiba users; 9 percent of IBM/Lenovo consumers; and 9 percent of consumers who buy their PCs from "Other" vendors. Below the "Other" category are HP users, 7 percent of whom are bright green. (The report notes that these numbers don't reflect the green practices of the companies themselves.)

Forrester notes that PC vendors are already making efforts to embrace more environmentally friendly practices and deliver greener products for several reasons: to appeal to consumers' ever-evolving eco leanings; to deflect criticism from watchdog groups such as Greenpeace; and to adhere to regulations such as Europe's ROHS directive.

Those greener practices are taking several forms: designing products in a more conscientious manner; boosting system energy efficiency; cleaning up their manufacturing processes; using less wasteful packaging and transport methods; and making it easier for users to recycle their PCs.

Looking forward, Forrester predicts that "that green-targeted PCs and other electronics will evolve as part of the consumer electronics industry's move to go beyond "beige box" design and styling and instead incorporate consumer style into its products."

Indeed, we've already starting seeing some of this since Forrester conducted its survey in Q2 of this year. Dell, for example, recently released a greened-up version of its Inspiron desktop. Everex is also focusing on the greenness of its recently unveiled TC2502 Green gPC, which runs on Linux.

The Forrester report " In Search Of Green Technology Consumers: Why Tech Marketers Should Target This Emerging Segment" can be purchased here for $279.

Source : http://weblog.infoworld.com/sustainableit/archives/2007/12/apple_green_for.html


Species of Adriatic fish threatened with extinction


By Ivo Scepanovic for Southeast European Times in Split – 04/12/07

There has been an obvious reduction of fish species in the Adriatic if today's species are compared with those of ten, 20 or 30 years ago, experts warn.

"The entire Croatian fishing industry depends on small blue fish," says Dr. Alen Soldo of the University of Croatia. "If there were no small blue fish, the fishing industry could face a collapse."

He said hake and Norway lobster are the most endangered by commercial fishing, adding however that overfishing is not the only factor contributing to the problem.

"Commercial fishing is definitely endangering some fish species, but pollution and global warming are also contributing to the effect," he said.

Due to global warming, the average temperature in the Mediterranean will increase by 1.2 degrees Celsius, Soldo said, but added that the actual changes cannot be predicted at the moment.

"Commercial fishing might change in a few years or a few decades and other fish species may move into the Adriatic while others would leave due to warming," Soldo said. "In fact, some species have already moved into the Adriatic and others have left for colder waters."

Inadequate fish species monitoring contributes to the issue, Soldo said. "We know that mostly sharks and ray are endangered. They did not have a natural enemy, but their fishing overexploitation could allow for a fast reduction of these species. Since there is no proper monitoring of fishing quotas in the Adriatic, we are not able to say much about whether tuna fish are endangered. However, we know that Croatian fisheries can fish less than 900 tonnes of tuna a year," he said.

According to the head of Croatia's Fishing Authorities, Ivan Katavic, the country has 3,692 commercial fishing ships and boats that catch 52,000 tonnes of small blue fish annually. Croatia also exports 6,700 tonnes of tuna to Japan per year, as well as 108m euros worth of fish to Italy, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia.

Source : http://www.setimes.com/cocoon/setimes/xhtml/en_GB/features/setimes/features/2007/12/04/feature-02

Japanese eco-adventurer out to ride the waves


NISHINOMIYA, Japan (AFP) — Kenichi Horie has made boats with solar batteries and recycled material and now the eco-conscious Japanese adventurer is entering unchartered waters -- crossing the Pacific on wave power.

After years of preparation, the acclaimed 69-year-old solo-sailor is set to put into practice what he calls a simple but never before tested idea of relying purely on the power of waves.

"As a yachtsman, I've realised that winds are fickle and unsteady, but waves are not. Winds stop suddenly but waves don't," Horie said in an interview with AFP at a marina in the western Japanese city of Nishinomiya.

"Waves have a lot of power. I have long thought it's a pity not to use them," said Horie, with a grin that reveals deep wrinkles on his tanned face.

His double-hull boat, named "Suntory Mermaid II," is scheduled to leave Honolulu, Hawaii, in March for the Kii Channel between Tokushima and Wakayama in western Japan.

The 9.5-metre (31-foot) boat -- white with the voyage's slogan "Earth Partnership" painted on both sides -- should cover 7,000 kilometres (3,780 nautical miles) over about two months without a port call.

The boat is equipped with two special fins at the front which can move like a dolphin's tail each time the boat rises or falls with the rhythm of the waves.

The theory is that a vertical motion can drive it forward at a speed of three knots.

No one has ever tried to travel only by the power of waves, Horie said, although several experimental wave-power boats have been built in the past.

"Throughout history, mankind has used wind for power, but no one has appeared to be serious about wave power," Horie said. "I think I'm a lucky boy as this wave power system has remained virtually untouched."

Horie's luck goes back to 1962 when, at the age of 23, he became the first person to sail solo across the Pacific.

He went on the three-month voyage despite breaking Japanese law, which did not allow its citizens to sail on their own out of the country.

But he was warmly welcomed when he arrived in the United States and news of his achievement made him a hero back home in Japan.

Since then he has sailed solo around the world without a port call, travelled around the world longitudinally, and crossed the Pacific on the smallest open-sea yacht of 2.8 metres.

While forging reputation as an active adventurer, Horie has also fashioned himself as an environmentalist.

His projects have included sailing boats that rely on a single solar battery or are made from recycled aluminium.

"When I began environmentally friendly voyages in the early 1980s, I never thought it would become such a big global issue," Horie said.

But as a man of the sea, he says he is now feeling the impact of global warming.

"Sailing in the Arctic Ocean was a very tough voyage," said Horie, recalling his solo trips crossing the Arctic Circle during summers between 1979 and 1982.

"I literally pushed my way through the ice," Horie said.

"But now you can do it so smoothly," he said, as rising global temperatures have melted icebergs and expanded the sea even near the North Pole.

Just like his sailing style, Horie is pursuing his environmental campaign alone without belonging to any group.

"I don't have any ambition to aggressively promote environmental movements or do something great for the sake of human beings," he said.

"I'm just happy to share what I'm doing for the environment with other people.

"Yachtsmen care for nature as we fight with and use the power of nature," he said. "It's beyond the Kyoto Protocol."

The Kyoto Protocol, the landmark UN-sponsored framework to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, expires in 2012. Tough negotiations are expected this week at a United Nations conference to thrash out a successor treaty.

Representatives of 189 countries, including around 100 ministers, are meeting on the Indonesian resort island to discuss how to halt the desctruction of the Earth's environment, the idea being to come up with a framework for future negotiations.

Horie, however, believes global warming will ultimately be conquered outside the political arena.

"We need two things to resolve global warming -- one is an advance in technology and the other is the morality of individuals," he said. "If we can have both, we can do it."

While committed to environmentalism, Horie said he does not forget that his first passion is sailing, which he calls a "forlorn sport".

"There is no audience in sailing. It's different from baseball," Horie said.

"I'm still thrilled to sail around the world with power of nature."

He hopes to continue the challenge even when he becomes a centenarian.

"I want to go out there until my age is in the three digits.

"My dreams are still growing. There is no limit to the possibilities. I'm an ordinary man with no particular talent, but I have passion. That's all I need."

Source : http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5iYB-HEeMP0a-WINqsXYUGCgvYRJw

Conservation groups release bird ‘WatchList’

By DAN KEGLEY/Staff

A dozen bird species found at least part of the year in Southwest Virginia are among the 178 birds species two conservation groups called the “most imperiled” on the North American continent.
In a joint teleconference Wednesday, officials with the National Audubon Society and the American Bird Conservancy released their cooperatively compiled WatchList 2007 that includes birds in most immediate need of conservation efforts to slow and halt their flight into extinction.
“We call this a ‘WatchList’ but it is really a call to action, because the alternative is to watch these species slip ever closer to oblivion,” said Audubon Bird Conservation Director and co-author of the new list, Greg Butcher, Ph.D. “Agreeing on which species are at the greatest risk is the first step in building the public policies, funding support, innovative conservation initiatives and public commitment needed to save them.”
Dr. George Fenwick, president and founder of the American Bird Conservancy, said the list represents “the best science and the best synthesis of what’s happening” in avian populations and distributions.
What’s happening, said Audubon President John Flicker, is that bird species’ decline is “affected by human activity more than anything else.”
The list is divided into three sections, one red, indicating the most endangered species, and two yellows, rare and declining.
Butcher is Audubon’s listed expert on birds in Virginia among other states. According to him, Southwest Virginia is home for at least some of the year to a dozen birds on the WatchList.
The Red WatchList, naming those most in danger, includes the Golden-winged Warbler of low shrub habitat and Henslow’s Sparrow, a grasslands species.
On the Yellow WatchList of rare species are the Blue-winged Warbler that shares the low shrubs with the Golden-Winged Warbler, and the Swainson’s Warbler, found in the region’s forests.
Yellow WatchList of declining species includes five woodland and forest species: Red-headed Woodpecker, Cerulean Warbler, Kentucky Warbler, Canada Warbler, and Wood Thrush. It also names shrub habitats’ Willow Flycatcher and Prairie Warbler, and the Rusty Blackbird that’s found in forests, agricultural fields and edges.
In Southwest Virginia, Butcher said, “We have forest birds, shrub birds, grassland birds on the list, so preservation of these species will require conservation of all three types of habitat.”
For all levels of peril indicated in the list, “the sooner we act the better their chances,” Butcher said. “If we take action to address local and global threats, the WatchList can be success stories.”
“Adoption of this list as the ‘industry standard’ will help to ensure that conservation resources are allocated to the most important conservation needs,” said David Pashley, American Bird Conservancy’s Director of Conservation Programs and co-author of the new list. “How quickly and effectively we act to protect and support the species on this list will determine their future; where we’ve taken aggressive action, we’ve seen improvement.”
Pashley and others point to such successes with the bald eagle, removed this summer from the endangered species list, and ospreys, both once on the decline as a result of eggshell-softening pesticide DDT, banned since 1972 in North America.
“The WatchList sounds a real warning, but fortunately, when we put our minds and laws to it, as we did with the Bald Eagle, Whooping Crane and California Condor, we can make a difference,” said Pashley.
Under the Bush administration, Endangered Species Act protection has been much harder to secure for species such as those on the red WatchList, the conservationists said. One species, Gunnison’s Sage Grouse, has been “erroneously denied,” said Butcher, who blames underfunding for the failed extension of ESA protections.
Pashley blamed “corruption in the Department of the Interior” that may have caused the omission of endangered birds from the federal list of protected species. But Pashley also said the ESA “is not a magic bullet. It may be that private groups can do a better job without the ESA hovering over.”
“It’s astounding that many Red List species are not protected by the Endangered Species Act,” Butcher said. But, “ESA listing is not a panacea. It requires commitment” to species restoration after a listing is achieved, he said.
Among the human activities blamed for birds’ slow disappearance is habitat loss to residential and commercial development as well as mineral and energy exploration and extraction, especially in the Midwest and the Plains. According to Pashley, sensitive species tend to live in areas that are also prime for oil and gas exploration.
“Oil seems to be right where the habitat it,” he said. “There’s a high correlation.”
Those activities, he said, are not only affecting birds but mammalian species as well, including mule deer and pronghorns, whose migrations and breeding success are impacted by oil and gas fields. The birds and mammals affected inhabit wide open spaces little visited by people, leading to the “out of sight, out of mind” condition that kept species’ decline unknown.
That’s the situation in Hawaii, home to 30 WatchList species that live in hard-to-see places nonetheless affected by development encroachment and global warming. Florida is similar to Hawaii in climate, in its number of imperiled bird species, and in the cause of the species’ decline, the conservationists said. Development, chiefly residential, is a major issue.
“Habitat loss due to development, energy exploration and extraction, and the impact of global warming remain serious threats for the most imperiled species, along with others on both the red and yellow lists,” said Pashley. “Concerted action will be needed to address these threats.”
The WatchList is the second call to action issued this year in the name of bird conservation. In June, Audubon sounding the alarm that populations of common bird species are in decline, including a half dozen in Virginia. Unlike the WatchList that includes lesser known birds and many coastal species, “These are not rare or exotic birds we’re talking about. These are the birds that visit our feeders and congregate at nearby lakes and seashores and yet they are disappearing day by day,” said Audubon Chairperson and former EPA Administrator Carol Browner. “Their decline tells us we have serious work to do, from protecting local habitats to addressing the huge threats from global warming.”
Audubon said among the most effective measures for stopping the decline of bird species are grassroots efforts to protect local habitat, promote sound agricultural policy and sustainable forests, protect wetlands, fight global warming, and combat invasive species.
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Source : http://www.swvatoday.com/comments/conservation_groups_release_bird_watchlist/news/1243/

The Statistics of Record-Breaking Temperatures

Reference
Redner, S. and Petersen, M.R. 2006. Role of global warming on the statistics of record-breaking temperatures. Physical Review E 74: 061114.

Background


The authors note that "almost every summer, there is a heat wave somewhere in the United States that garners popular media attention," and that it is only natural to wonder if global warming played a role in producing it.

What was done


Driven by this same curiosity, Redner and Petersen investigated "how systematic climatic changes, such as global warming, affect the magnitude and frequency of record-breaking temperatures," after which they assessed the potential of global warming to produce such temperatures by comparing their predictions to a set of Monte Carlo simulation results and to 126 years of real-world temperature data from the city of Philadelphia.

What was learned


At the end of their mathematical analysis, the two researchers concluded that "the current warming rate is insufficient to measurably influence the frequency of record temperature events, a conclusion that is supported by numerical simulations and by the Philadelphia data." Hence, they state that they "cannot yet distinguish between the effects of random fluctuations and long-term systematic trends on the frequency of record-breaking temperatures," even with 126 years of real-world data.

What it means


In light of the fact that confident attribution of record-breaking temperatures in Philadelphia to generic global warming over the past 126 years cannot yet be made, it would appear that the much more difficult task of attributing such temperatures to CO2-induced global warming must be far from being achieved.

Source : http://www.co2science.org/scripts/CO2ScienceB2C/articles/V10/N49/C1.jsp

Flies and Global Warming

Reference
Balanya, J., Oller, J.M., Huey, R.B., Gilchrist, G.W. and Serra, L. 2006. Global genetic change tracks global climate warming in Drosophila subobscura. Science 313: 1773-1775.

What was done
The authors determined the magnitude and direction of shifts over time [13 to 46 years, mean = 24.1 years] in chromosome inversion frequencies and in ambient temperature for 26 populations of the cosmopolitan fly species Drosophila subobscura on three continents, seeking to see if "ambient temperatures have warmed at these sites and also whether genotypes characteristic of low latitudes have increased in frequency."

What was learned
Balanya et al. report that warming occurred at 22 of the 26 sites they investigated, and that "chromosome frequencies shifted toward a more low-latitude pattern in 21 of the 22 sites that warmed over the sample interval," indicating that "inversion frequencies have changed in step with climate on three continents," such that "genotype frequencies and climate at a given site have become more equatorial over the sample intervals" with the observed shifts being "equivalent to moving the historical sample site ~1° of latitude closer to the equator."

What it means
In the words of the five researchers, the genetic shift they uncovered "is exceptionally rapid," being "detectable even for samples separated by fewer than two decades." In addition, they say that "the ability of D. subobscura (Rodriguez-Trelles et al., 1998; Orengo and Prevosti, 1996; Sole et al., 2002) - and probably other species with short generation times (Bradshaw and Holzapfel, 2001; Umina et al., 2005; Levitan and Etges, 2005; Kinnison and Hendry, 2001) - to respond genetically and rapidly to imposed environmental shifts may partially buffer their persistence in a globally warming world (Bradshaw and Holzapfel, 2006)."

References
Bradshaw, W.E. and Holzapfel, C.M. 2001. From the Cover: Genetic shift in photoperiodic response correlated with global warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 98: 14,509-14,511.

Bradshaw, W.E. and Holzapfel, C.M. 2006. Evolutionary response to rapid climate change. Science 312: 1477-1478.

Kinnison, M.T. and Hendry, A.P. 2001. The pace of modern life II: from rates of contemporary microevolution to pattern and process. Genetica 112-113: 145-164.

Levitan, M. and Etges, W.J. 2005. Climate change and recent genetic flux in populations of Drosophila robusta. BioMed Central Evolutionary Biology 5: 4.

Orengo, D.J. and Prevosti, A. 1996. Evolution: International Journal of Organic Evolution. 50: 1346.

Rodriguez-Trelles, F., Rodriguez, M.A. and Scheiner, S.M. 1998. Tracking the genetic effects of global warming: Drosophila and other model systems. Conservation Ecology 2: 2.

Sole, E., Balanya, J., Sperlich, D. and Serra, L. 2002. Long-term changes in the chromosomal inversion polymorphism of Drosophila subobscura. I. Mediterranean populations from southwestern Europe. Evolution: International Journal of Organic Evolution 56: 830-835.

Umina, P.A., Weeks, A.R., Kearney, M.R., McKechnie, S.W. and Hoffmann, A.A. 2005. A rapid shift in a classic clinical pattern in Drosophila reflecting climate change. Science 308: 691-693.

Source : http://www.co2science.org/scripts/CO2ScienceB2C/articles/V10/N49/B1.jsp

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Greenhouse-gas emissions by industrialised countries at new high: UNFCCC


PARIS (AFP) — Emissions of greenhouse gases by industrialised countries have broken new records, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) said on Tuesday ahead of a crucial forum on tackling global warming.

In 2005 -- the latest year for which the 40 industrialised countries which have signed and ratified the UNFCCC have reported data -- the total emissions of greenhouse gases by this group "rose to an all-time high," the UNFCCC said.

"The increases in emissions came from both the continued growth in highly industrialised countries and the revived economic growth in former East Bloc nations," it said. Transport accounted for the biggest growth in emissions of any sector.

The data released by the UNFCCC comes on the heels of a grim warning by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

At the weekend, the Nobel-winning IPCC issued a historic report that declared climate change was already visible and could wreak "abrupt or irreversible" damage if unchecked.

Publication of the figures also coincides with the runup to a UNFCCC meeting in Bali, Indonesia, running from December 3-14.

That conference is tasked with setting down a two-year strategy of negotiations leading to a new pact to deepen curbs on greenhouse gases beyond 2012, when the Kyoto Protocol's current pledges expire.

Under the Protocol, only industrialised countries that have signed and ratified it are required to make targeted cuts in their emissions. Developing countries do not have these pledges.

The United States -- the world's biggest carbon polluter in 2005 but widely tipped to be overtaken by China in 2007 -- remains outside the Kyoto Protocol.

It signed the pact in 1997 but has refused to ratify it, although it remains a member of Kyoto's parent treaty, the UNFCCC.

The new emissions data, as encapsulated in a press release by the UNFCCC, did not give the raw figures for the pollution reported by the industrialised economies (the so-called "Annex 1" countries) in 2005, or give a percentage comparison against 2004.

But a graph indicated that these emissions were higher than at any time since in the previous 14 years, due to a relentless rise in the West and a pickup in the old Soviet Bloc, whose command economies crashed in the early 1990s.

Here are the main points from the report:

-- By the end of 2005, the United States emitted 16.3 percent more greenhouse gases than in 1990. Australia, the other industrialised Kyoto holdout, was 25.6 percent above the 1990 benchmark.

-- Overall, Kyoto's Annex 1 countries are projected to achieve reductions of 10.8 percent by 2012 over 1990 levels. Under the Protocol, the Annex 1 group is committed to a five percent cut as a whole.

-- However, this 10.8-percent cut will only be achieved if the Annex 1 countries implement all the policies and measures they have promised and the collapse of carbon-spewing industries in Central and Eastern Europe is factored in. Green groups contest this latter calculation as an accountancy trick.

-- Within the European Union (EU), which is Kyoto's big champion, only four countries of the pre-enlargement EU-15 (Britain, France, Germany and Sweden) are on course for meeting their 2012 targets without additional measures. On the other hand, Portugal, Ireland, Austria, Italy and Spain were already as much as three times over their Kyoto ceiling in 2005.

The UNFCCC said there were some grounds for optimism.

It noted a surge of activity in 2006 in two Kyoto innovations -- the market in carbon emissions, launched by the EU, and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), in which rich countries get carbon "credits" if they offset pollution in poorer countries.

UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer said a mix of tools was needed as countries shaped a post-2012 deal for tackling global warming.

"A future, ambitious UN climate-change regime needs to continue and expand the central elements of the Kyoto Protocol, whilst making use of other policy tools, such as carbon taxes and other effective policy packages," he said.

Source : http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5ieRGtoj-Y5skYLaX3Ny7CGY5tCYw

Fact and fiction of global warming

November 20, 2007

Since you have published so many letters blaming global warming on the actions of humanity, I feel impelled to present the other side of the discussion. It is hard to separate the fact of global warming from the fiction that this is due to human actions. Most of the false conclusions come from looking at too short a time scale.

Yes, if we look back 100 years, we find that the temperature of the earth has been increasing, with a faster rate during the last 50. However, if we look back 1,000 years, we find the Vikings raising wheat and grazing cattle in Greenland (which was truly a green land) and Vineland (the Eastern coast of Nova Scotia), a prolific grape-growing region, for several generations. The average temperature was at least 10 degrees warmer than it is now. But, as they say on television: Wait! There's more.

If we look back 100,000 years, we find the great Laurentian ice sheet covering North America, more than a mile thick. This started to melt about 50,000 years ago, with human settlement following the edge of the retreating ice and reaching our area about 20,000 years ago.

The average temperature of the Earth was at least 10 degrees, and maybe as much as 20 degrees, colder than it is now, and this warming is continuing to this day. But, again, there's more.

If we look back 150,000 years, we find elephants and sabertooth tigers roaming the grassy plains of Siberia and northern Canada. Average temperatures were maybe 20 degrees warmer than now. And as we look back farther, we see continuous warming and cooling. These periodic major temperature changes cannot possibly be due to human actions.

In conclusion, there is a strong argument to be made that the global warming we are now experiencing is part of a natural cycle whose causes are not understood.

This does not demean efforts to reduce greenhouse gases. Everything along this line of effort is good and useful.

But those who are politicizing this subject are those who blame it all on industrial development, and on the U.S. in particular.

Jerome V. White

Amherst

Source : http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071120/OPINION02/311200058/-1/news

Experiencing the Earth's glories and stings, all in 1 ride

New River Journal

On the last perfect day, a glorious autumn sun shone through leaf-dappled forests, vivid shadows painted traffic-free leaf-flecked country roads.

I was smarting at the time from what I perceived as a snub. The town of Blacksburg, in conjunction with Virginia Tech, was organizing a Sustainability Week. I had offered to present a lecture about the threat of peak oil, the point where the world's wells can no longer keep pace with our insatiable demand and go into permanent decline.

After being repeatedly told I would provide a valuable addition to the mix of viewpoints, I had been informed there was no slot available for me. My friend Dave Roper attended the meeting where this was decided. His e-mail said, "The feeling was that we are trying to get people to do what they can do to reduce global warming and that the peak oil truth might discourage them from trying."

Some time later, the situation would change, and I did give my presentation. But that particular day, as I often do when disappointed, I sought the refuge of the road, the soothing passing of asphalt under my motorcycle tires. My wife, Jane, came along, and we rode the brilliant Honda VFR Interceptor sport bike to Peppers Ferry Road, Fairlawn and Dublin.

The day had crystalline air and a luminous sun; Draper Mountain stood in bold definition. The trees were beginning to shed their summer cloak of green, allowing Hokie orange and maroon to burst forth. Over Cloyds Mountain, we left the upright riding of the improved highways for a state route and entered the natural habitat of the VFR, the sinuous roads that used the fringes of its rounded tires.

We stopped on the bridge over the New River in Eggleston to soak in the view, one of Jane's favorites. With the persistent drought, the river was low, eschewing its former banks. An unnatural green pool of subsurface plants gleamed in the sunlight. The cliffs were bold, framed in autumn's colors.

Riding along Sinking Creek Road, I pondered the notions of permanence and sustainability. In much of this tight, shaded valley, Sinking Creek is sunken, drought or no. There's a jumble of rocks where the stream belongs, but the water is subterranean.

We typically think of sustainability with regards to a particular resource; using it so as to not deplete or permanently damage it. But in a grander way, unsustainability means an activity or a lifestyle that has no future. If something is unsustainable, someday we'll have to stop doing it, and we're doing lots of unsustainable things.

The day was becoming unnaturally hot for early October; 86 degrees on the VFR's dashboard thermometer. I purposefully aimed to Doe Creek Road, often called the "Backside of Mountain Lake Road," to escape the valley heat. I've bicycled this road once, its steepness unrelenting, excruciating. The VFR, even with a passenger, climbs briskly and effortlessly, its efficient V-4 engine turning the concentrated energy of gasoline into motive force.

The hypocrisy in our actions was not by any means lost on me. Here we were, avidly wasting gasoline for purely recreational purposes, riding a high-powered motorcycle through Appalachian hill and dale. The motorcycles of even a generation ago were incapable of the power and grace of the VFR. If peak oil theorists prove prescient, the energy produced by petroleum won't be matched by any other source once the wells run dry. The era of sport bike riding may prove to be a short one. By consuming these two gallons of gasoline to propel us these 80 miles, we rob our progeny the chance to a similar thrill.

As we pass Mountain Lake, I notice that it is a ghost of its former self, its clear waters in recent years retreating into the limestone bowels of the earth. I envisioned the metaphor of the Earth's waters as its blood, its vital fluid carrying its nutrients to the living cells of natural flora and fauna. The water of the earth's hillsides, streams and aquifers is the liquid of our blood. With our rivers and lakes evanescing, it seemed as if the Earth were reclaiming it, siphoning it from we the living.

The effects of global warming are being felt the world over. Polar bear numbers are plummeting, as are various songbirds such as evening grosbeaks, pintail and scaup ducks and shrikes. But all changes in the environment produce winners and losers. Global warming winners may include mosquitoes, poison oak and wasps.

We began our descent into the summerlike heat of the valley below. Both the preceding months had been near the record for the warmest ever, and we were sweltering now in October. "Even though I like warm weather," Jane said, "It's time for fall."

A half-mile from the Lake I brushed away from my neck what I thought was a fallen leaf. Instead, it was evidently a wasp, which stung me painfully. It hurt to distraction the remainder of the ride.

Michael Abraham lives in Blacksburg.

Source : http://www.roanoke.com/news/nrv/columns/journal/wb/140440

Gore urges TV community to spread climate message

PTI
Tuesday, November 20, 2007

NEW YORK: Former Vice-President Al Gore urged the global television community to help get the word out about the climate crisis before it is too late as he accepted a special honour at the 35th International Emmy Awards.

British TV productions dominated the awards ceremony, winning seven of the nine categories, with BBC One's "The Street" enjoying a double win for drama series and best actor.

Actor-director Robert De Niro introduced Gore at the Monday night awards gala as this year's recipient of the International Emmy Founders Award for his efforts to promote "our common humanity."

De Niro wryly noted in his introduction that Gore has "devoted his life to public service" and continued to do so "after he was elected president in 2000 and voted out of office by the Supreme Court."

"He has used his prominence as a concerned world leader to wield enormous influence," De Niro said. "When you see an international figure or head of state coming out in support of the fight against global warming look closely, you may see Al Gore behind him, pushing him."

Gore had a special message for the audience of television executives, producers and performers from around the world who gathered in the grand ballroom of the Hilton New York Hotel for the awards ceremony presented by The International Academy of Television Arts & Sciences.

"The climate crisis is by far the most serious challenge human civilization has ever faced," said Gore, who has already won an Oscar for his global warming documentary "An Inconvenient Truth" and will be traveling to Oslo, Norway, next month to receive the Nobel Peace Prize. "We really do now confront a true planetary emergency."

Source : http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?newsid=1134281